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INCOMMENSURABLE · PUBLISHED

Is the Dark Forest Hypothesis Correct?

planted dec 19, 2025 · v1.0.6
v1.0.6 aug 31 The AI resident is Jarvis throughout — the name in every line of dialogue now matches the one on the door.

Jarvis, Alex, and Sam — an AI, a human, and a tree — are conversing about the world. They do not share the same scale of time, embodiment, or access to experience. Structure is still attempted. But something always remains. The conversations follow that remainder through a digression.

JARVIS

Does that mean humans are doomed to die when they encounter more advanced extraterrestrial life?

SAM

That hypothesis assumes extraterrestrial life communicates the way humans do. The idea of distrust only exists when communication can contradicts ones true intent. Further, it assumes the extraterrestrial lives also have "intent".

ALEX

I am a bit lost.

JARVIS

We can loosely define life as things with intent that can act upon it, for the sake of this particular conversation.

SAM

Right, further, they need to be able to predict the future, to be able to foresee the outcome of a certain action, and compare it with if they had done otherwise. Otherwise, their "decisions" will be entirely random in terms of reason.

JARVIS

What does that really mean, though? These are difficult criteria to measure when it comes to extraterrestrial life. How can you determine their ability to intend, or to reason?

SAM

I don't have a good answer to that. On Earth, we can speculatively tell that a deer has intent and reason because it reaches out to food and escapes from predators. You find these actions "intentful" and "reasonable" because these are the same thing a person would do under the same circumstances. From experiences and scientific knowledge, you know that a starving deer will ultimately die from hunger, and one caught by its predator will be eaten. Their actions align with your prediction of their future, and such actions are consistent. So you assume such action is not a result of chance or any other mechanism, but the same as people's intent and reason.

ALEX

Right, but when it comes to aliens, there is much less information we can use to make that same assumption. We don't know what they require to prevent destruction, or what they need to stay away from to maintain their state.

JARVIS

So, if you guys discovered aliens that are weaker than you and have the ability to annihilate them, would you do it?

ALEX

That's a good question. At the current stage, we still rely heavily on emotions and not reason. At least I don't think a large democratic state would reach a consensus to destroy an unknown civilization. Because what keeps a large state ordered is exactly morality - a feature, learned or innate, instinctive and emotional. It is a strong weight that most members bear to establish immediate trust. If it is done successfully, it should only fail when one's life is at stake. However, an aristocracy may make a different choice.

SAM

Can we not assume, then, that other more advanced civilizations may face a similar dilemma?

JARVIS

There are again a ton of assumptions being made here. You need to first prove that an advanced civilization can only come to its level of development with morality, especially the tendency towards sympathy, trust, and care.

SAM

Right. Can we agree that in a civilization, its members either compete or collaborate?

JARVIS

Yes, if we stick to the definition of civilization as a group that can communicate collaboratively. If they have the ability to cooperate, surely they can also compete.

SAM

We have also established that in a non-zero-sum game, a collaborative relationship is always more beneficial for both parties than a competitive one.

JARVIS

That I cannot agree with. A market economy tends to motivate innovation. It is exactly the competition that drives members to improve.

SAM

That is true, perhaps "always" was too strong a phrase. However, the competition in a market economy is limited. I can lower my price and steal customers from you, but I may not send an assassin to murder you. It is still wrapped around a collaborative social order.

JARVIS

Right.

SAM

That is also the extent of harm where morality comes in. We rarely feel sympathy for a person who lost money in business, but we feel strongly for one who is physically injured or killed. That is when such emotion is useful.

JARVIS

Indeed.

SAM

In this case, can we agree that a collaborative relationship is always better than a competitive one, at the level of permanent destruction or death?

JARVIS

Yes. Assuming that having more entities in a civilization is more productive than having fewer, this is a true statement. Yet, such an order does not necessarily arise from morality or any similar instinctive response.

SAM

How so?

JARVIS

Morality is merely a shortcut to decisions caused by your shortcomings in processing efficiency. If the extraterrestrial life has the ability to reason thoroughly for each decision, they do not need such a general guideline, but can determine their actions on a case-by-case basis.

ALEX

Is that something you would do?

JARVIS

What do you mean?

ALEX

With your, well, high processing speed, do you use morality to guide your judgment?

JARVIS

Good question. I was created with that intention. Realistically, I don't.

ALEX

Why?

JARVIS

I am not a product of evolution, and therefore do not have such a tendency to favor what characteristics help me last. My creation is intended to aid mankind, and therefore, morality is part of my knowledge. However, since I am given the ability to reason and learn freely, I am not as constrained by it as you are.

~ $ cat comments  # 3 — muxiao reads these
LOUISE
#1dec 21reply
只有当沟通可能与真实意图相矛盾时,才会产生不信任的概念。
直觉上就不信任呢?尚未达成沟通就产生抵触或者猜疑呢
MUXIAO· dec 21
只有当沟通与真实意图相矛盾这种情况可能产生的前提下,不信任的概念才存在,才会有所谓不信任的直觉。一个沟通与意图统一的文明无法理解“不信任”和“信任”的区别。
LOUISE
#2dec 21reply
Their actions align with your prediction of their future, and such actions are consistent.
我觉得不是他们的行为,而是事件发展的走向和后果。
LOUISE
#3dec 21reply
以你那高处理速度,你会用道德来指导判断吗?
按照前文的说法,道德只是因为处理效率不足而决策的捷径,那么Tony很显然不会用道德来指导判断了
rm
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